2009 Emmy Nomination Predictions

Our picks for the most-deserving shows and performances of the season

By Diane Vadino
Special to MSN TV

After several years of shocking snubs, the Emmy Awards found new relevance in 2008. Voters never managed to do right by "The Wire," a best-in-history TV show that barely earned a nomination. But the Academy did more right than wrong last year, with top prizes going to deserving shows like best drama "Mad Men" and best comedy "30 Rock." In perhaps the voters' most laudable accomplishment, they even broke James Spader's iron grasp on the Best Actor in a Drama Series prize that he has, incredibly, won three times. Further reason to hope: Neil Patrick Harris will be this year's host, following his standout (and possibly career-best) performance as the presenter of the Tony Awards in June. It's a 0-to-60 adjustment, considering that the 2008 duties were split among five reality-show hosts.

We have exceptionally high hopes for the Academy as it announces the nominations on July 16, especially given the wealth of options, from the bleak and brilliant final season of "The Shield" to the bizarre comic mayhem of "Flight of the Conchords" and "Better Off Ted," two of our underdog hopes for long-shot nominations. (Speaking of: Ed Westwick from "Gossip Girl," anyone?)

Emmy poll: Who should be nominated?

Here's hoping that this year's picks are more gratifying than infuriating -- and that Emmy voters continue to look outside the networks or even beyond their year-in, year-out favorites for exciting new talent. (Ed Westwick? Leighton Meester?) In the meantime, here are our picks -- as well as a few of our most deeply held fears.

Best Drama
"The Shield." Shawn Ryan's masterpiece, which concluded its seventh and final season in March, was simply the best television on air last season: devastatingly bleak, the show's final episode transformed a desk job into a literal life sentence of office damnation. Too bleak for the Academy, perhaps, which would do nearly as well in bestowing top honors upon last year's drama winner "Mad Men," with a second season superior to its first and the good sense to wrap its psychological torment in a prettily costumed and set-designed package. The off-the-rails finale of "Battlestar Galactica" may have cost the otherwise stellar series its long-shot chance at a Best Drama Emmy win, and it'll likely make the case, alongside "The Wire," that TV's best shows never take the prize. In an exceptionally competitive category, we're hoping "Friday Night Lights" and "Dexter" earn noms along with "Lost," which ended the year with the best cliffhanger of its five, cliffhanger-rich seasons.

Best Comedy
Two NBC comedies have dominated here for the last three years, and we're sure to see "The Office" and "30 Rock" in this category again. (We vote for "The Office," even if "30 Rock" is coming off seven wins in 2008, the most ever for a comedy series.) We'd love to see ABC's absurdist comedy "Better Off Ted" in the running. It had us from the exploding eyeballs (of the cryogenically frozen employee; it all makes sense in context) of the series premiere. We're also hoping for recognition of Tony Shalhoub's gentle, ever-so-slightly corny "Monk," which kicks off its final season in August -- or its antithesis in tone, temperament and topic, David Duchovny's ever-so-slightly pervy "Californication." Without compelling new blood in this category, we expect to see some of last year's nominees, including "Entourage" and "Two and a Half Men," though we'd prefer that those spots go to a slightly sputtering (but still charming) "Ugly Betty," "Weeds" or the hysterical cult hit "Flight of the Conchords."

Best Actor, Drama
In this exceptionally tight category, we're praying for Michael Chiklis of "The Shield," whose soul-killing future made that of Tony Soprano, a man of similar moral compromises, look like a never-ending funfair of dinners out with the family.

This category is rife with past winners, including Chiklis, who took the prize in 2003; Kiefer Sutherland of "24" (2006); James Spader of "Boston Legal" (a shocking three times, in 2004, 2005 and 2007); and Bryan Cranston of "Breaking Bad," who won in 2008. Instead of Sutherland or Spader, we'd love to see Cranston and Chiklis joined by 2008 nominees Michael C. Hall from "Dexter" and Jon Hamm, the deeply, desperately conflicted emotional core of "Mad Men," and, in a lemon-drops-and-fairy-wings world, Edward James Olmos as the unshakeable Adm. Adama in "Battlestar Galactica." (Realistically, we're expecting Hugh Laurie from "House," far from the worst of all possible worlds.)

Best Actress, Drama
Glenn Close was a credible winner in 2008 for her role on "Damages," but this year we'd love to see Mary McDonnell of "Battlestar Galactica" take her rightful place on stage. Playing the dying leader of the 12 colonies, McDonnell gave the show's series finale a gravitas it otherwise lacked entirely. (Robots the scourge of the 21st century? Er, thanks, but no.) We'll expect to see past nominees Sally Field of "Brothers & Sisters," Kyra Sedgwick of "The Closer" and Mariska Hargitay of "Law & Order: SVU" return, but we'd love to see their ranks joined by cable champs January Jones of "Mad Men" or Jill Scott of "The No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency." And while we rarely found ourselves raving about this season of "Grey's Anatomy," Ellen Pompeo deftly turned in several heartbreaking performances, none more so than in the last moments of the season finale, as she discovered the identity of the ravaged John Doe. Sob!

Best Actor, Comedy
Our dream comedy actor category would pit Bret McKenzie and Jemaine Clement from "Flight of the Conchords" against Jay Harrington from "Better Off Ted," as those three actors have undoubtedly contributed the most LOLs-per-minute last season -- at least in the tragically small number of households that watched them. "Cult favorite," not typically a favored quality among Emmy voters, we return to the regulars: two-time winner Tony Shalhoub, whose "Monk" signs off this season; Alec Baldwin of "30 Rock"; and our personal favorite, Steve Carell from "The Office." Carell's been nominated three times without success, so we're hoping he holds off our other predicted nominees David Duchovny of "Californication" and Zachary Levi of "Chuck" for the prize. Our sentimental long-shot: Jason Lee in his final season with "My Name Is Earl."

Best Actress, Comedy
Tina Fey's annus mirabilis in 2008 may easily have stretched into 2009: Her Emmy-winning performance on "30 Rock" has only sharpened over the last 12 months. She'll likely be joined by her 2008 fellow nominees, who haven't gone anywhere: Christina Applegate of "Samantha Who?," Mary-Louise Parker of "Weeds," Julia Louis-Dreyfus of "The New Adventures of Old Christine" and America Ferrera of "Ugly Betty." The sentimental vote could go to TV vet Applegate, who in the past 12 months has faced difficulties professional ("Samantha Who?" failed to earn a renewal in June) and personal (the actress underwent a double mastectomy following a diagnosis of breast cancer.) Look for surprise additions to the group. Our votes are for Toni Collette's showy role as a mom with dissociative personality disorder on "The United States of Tara" and Brit import Billie Piper in "The Secret Diary of a Call Girl."

Miniseries and Made-for-TV Movie
The best miniseries competition this year is weirdly not: Only seven miniseries were entered this year in what is a separate category from the more compelling TV movie race. (It's either going to be "Little Dorrit" from PBS or "House of Saddam" or "Generation Kill," both from HBO. We're going with "Generation Kill" for the win in September.) The best TV movie battle is infinitely more interesting, once we get past the fact that "Grey Gardens," the Drew Barrymore and Jessica Lange biopic about the exceptionally odd Edith Beale, will likely take the prize. We'd love to see Kiefer Sutherland and "24" win here with the standout, stand-alone film "24: Redemption" rather than in the Best Drama category, and we're also expecting some praise for Brendan Gleeson's suitably glowering turn as Winston Churchill in HBO's "Into the Storm."

Supporting Actor/Actress
Our truest hope for the Supporting Actor/Actress categories: Elizabeth Mitchell of "Lost," whose tortured final moments as Juliet (or, er, her not-final moments, depending on the reset capabilities of that nuclear bomb she just detonated) were riveting. (Yes, we know she's been cast as a lead in the "V" reboot, but we're going to keep on keeping on, here.) We'll also continue to beat "The Shield" drum with hope for a nom for Walton Goggins as doomed cop Shane Vendrell. Ed Westwick and Leighton Meester from "Gossip Girl"? We know, the show's ridiculous, but Westwick and Meester were rather amazing earlier in the show's second season, particularly as Westwick came to grips with his father's untimely death. Christina Hendricks did some of the finest work in the topflight "Mad Men" ensemble, particularly as the victim of a gruesome act of sexual violence. And we'd like to nominate the entire "Friday Night Lights" supporting cast, from Zach Gilford and Taylor Kitsch to departed players Gaius Charles and Scott Porter.

Reality
The award for the Outstanding Host for a Reality or Reality-Competition Program was created just last year, so we'll forgive them for snubbing the best reality-show presenter on TV: Phil Keoghan, the beloved host of "The Amazing Race." (Is it some kind of anti-Kiwi bias? Honestly, it's the only answer we have.) Elsewhere in the reality world, the competition is broken into Outstanding Reality Show and Outstanding Reality-Based Competition. Kathy Griffin (and her life on the D-list) has prevailed in the former category the last two years, though we'd love to see "Dirty Jobs" take the prize in 2009. As for reality-based competition shows, "The Amazing Race" has won literally every time since the prize was created in 2003, which is just fine with us.