The U.S. population in 1949 was 149,000,000, one-half of 2005. To compare the success of a movie from 1949 to one in 2005 the total box office gross must be doubled, after increasing it to adjust for inflation, to reflect the fact that its potential audience doubled over those years. Social, political, and economic factors influence the number of people willing to pay to go to the movies. These factors can be determined by calculating the per capita ticket purchasing rate for a particular year. Normalizing this to the reference year, 2004 in this study, normalizes all social, economical, and political factors such as the availability of expendable cash, number of theater screens, relative cost of tickets, competition from television, the rapid releases of movies on DVDs, and the improvement of home theater equipment. For Example, in 1946 the per capita movie ticket purchasing rate for the average person was 34 tickets a year. In 2004 this average rate had dropped to only 5 tickets per person per year in response mainly to competition from television. By adjusting for all three parameters that effect the total box office receipts for a particular movie a more accurate comparison can be made between movies released in different eras. The data for these correction parameters is available at: BOX OFFICE DATA. To determine a movie's box office gross adjusted for inflation, population, and per capita ticket purchasing trends, its box office total was multiplied by the ratio of the 2004 average ticket price to the release year ticket price to correct for inflation, the ratio of the 2004 population to the release year population, and the ratio of the per capita ticket purchasing trend in 2004 to the per capita rate in the release year. This provides a dollar amount reflecting how the film would have done in 2004, the most recent complete reference year. For example, let's look at Bing Crosby's 1945 blockbuster The Bells of St. Mary's: Total 1945 box office = $21.3 million Adjusted for inflation = $21.3 million x $6.21 (2004 average ticket price) = $389 million ...................................................$0.34 (1945 average ticket price) Adjusted for population = $389 million x 293M (population in 2004) = $814 million .......................................................140M (population in 1945) Adjusted for per capita ticket purchasing trends = $814 million x 5.24 (average rate for 2004) = $140 million ........................................................30.46 (average rate for 1945) As can be seen, adjusting for only inflation or population gives an inflated number suggesting that the relative popularity of the movie was greater than it truly is. The reason is that in 1945 people went to the movies almost 6 times as often as they do today. Several older movies were released, then re-released several times in later years. For this page the gross for the initial release year and each re-release year was calculated separately then added together. It should be noted that although dollar amounts are used to rank the movies, these numbers should more accurately be considered as popularity numbers since they indicate how the movies should have done in the 2004 market, with the assumption that the purchasing population had the same movie style preference as the release year population. The following list ranks the most popular 21 movies of all time after adjusting for inflation, population and per capita ticket purchasing trends:
| Title: | 23 Most Popular Movies of All Time! Do You Think You Can Name Them? |
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| Description: | The U.S. population in 1949 was 149,000,000, one-half of 2005. To compare the success of a movie from 1949 to one in 2005 the total box office gross must be doubled, after increasing it to adjust for inflation, to reflect the fact that its potential audience doubled over those years. Social, political, and economic factors influence the number of people willing to pay to go to the movies. These factors can be determined by calculating the per capita ticket purchasing rate for a particular year. Normalizing this to the reference year, 2004 in this study, normalizes all social, economical, and political factors such as the availability of expendable cash, number of theater screens, relative cost of tickets, competition from television, the rapid releases of movies on DVDs, and the improvement of home theater equipment. For Example, in 1946 the per capita movie ticket purchasing rate for the average person was 34 tickets a year. In 2004 this average rate had dropped to only 5 tickets per person per year in response mainly to competition from television. By adjusting for all three parameters that effect the total box office receipts for a particular movie a more accurate comparison can be made between movies released in different eras. The data for these correction parameters is available at: BOX OFFICE DATA. To determine a movie's box office gross adjusted for inflation, population, and per capita ticket purchasing trends, its box office total was multiplied by the ratio of the 2004 average ticket price to the release year ticket price to correct for inflation, the ratio of the 2004 population to the release year population, and the ratio of the per capita ticket purchasing trend in 2004 to the per capita rate in the release year. This provides a dollar amount reflecting how the film would have done in 2004, the most recent complete reference year. For example, let's look at Bing Crosby's 1945 blockbuster The Bells of St. Mary's: Total 1945 box office = $21.3 million Adjusted for inflation = $21.3 million x $6.21 (2004 average ticket price) = $389 million ...................................................$0.34 (1945 average ticket price) Adjusted for population = $389 million x 293M (population in 2004) = $814 million .......................................................140M (population in 1945) Adjusted for per capita ticket purchasing trends = $814 million x 5.24 (average rate for 2004) = $140 million ........................................................30.46 (average rate for 1945) As can be seen, adjusting for only inflation or population gives an inflated number suggesting that the relative popularity of the movie was greater than it truly is. The reason is that in 1945 people went to the movies almost 6 times as often as they do today. Several older movies were released, then re-released several times in later years. For this page the gross for the initial release year and each re-release year was calculated separately then added together. It should be noted that although dollar amounts are used to rank the movies, these numbers should more accurately be considered as popularity numbers since they indicate how the movies should have done in the 2004 market, with the assumption that the purchasing population had the same movie style preference as the release year population. The following list ranks the most popular 21 movies of all time after adjusting for inflation, population and per capita ticket purchasing trends: |
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